Marqeta (NAS:MQ) — mrkt cap $2.2B; Price $4.41; EV/EBITDA NA
PASS. Marqeta was an early mover in card issuing for tech companies, offering a flexible API platform for physical and virtual card programs. Its largest customer, Square (Block), still accounts for ~46% of revenue. That concentration is risky—and the 2024 contract renewal exposed Marqeta’s lack of pricing power and contributing to a 26% yoy revenue decline. This dynamic plays out across their customer base: every renewal seems to result in worse economics for Marqeta. Meanwhile, competitors like Stripe are reaching feature parity and bundling services. Square could eventually in-house this or switch providers. The company is near breakeven on cash flow, and with ~$1B in cash—nearly half its market cap—it has time to figure things out, but the core business looks increasingly like a commoditized utility that gets squeezed with every renewal.
Bridger Aerospace (NAS:BAER) — mrkt cap $65mm; Price $1.20; EV/EBITDA 10
MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Bridger Aerospace provides aerial firefighting services—including water scooping and surveillance—primarily to U.S. government agencies. The company operates a fleet of specialized aircraft and supports wildfire suppression through rapid, technology-driven response capabilities. Government clients pay both for availability (standby or “exclusive use” during high-risk periods) and for flight hours when aircraft are deployed. BAER has secured several long-term contracts, driven by record fire activity last year and early this year. This is significant given the company’s high fixed cost base and past reliance on flight-hour revenue, which previously resulted in profitability only during the third quarter, when most fires occur. With a highly levered balance sheet, a more consistent earnings profile could drive a meaningful re-rating.
Computer Modeling (TSX:CMG) — mrkt cap $663mm; Price $8.08; EV/EBITDA 17
PASS. Computer Modelling Group is a Canada-based software company specializing in reservoir simulation technology for the energy industry. Its simulation tools are used by all of the world’s super-major oil companies. While CMG has established a strong niche in this category, it is now pursuing a new phase of growth through acquisitions. However, with a valuation near 5x revenues, we believe the market is already pricing in significant growth that we view with some caution.