Stock Sonar

Riskified (NAS:RSKD) — mrkt cap $750mm; Price $4.64; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Riskified provides fraud prevention infrastructure to mid-sized e-commerce merchants via an API that analyzes transaction data in real time. Their pricing is volume-based, and demand for their service is growing as online fraud becomes more complex. The platform combines machine learning, identity clustering, and data fusion to detect suspicious behavior and prevent chargebacks. Merchants benefit from higher approval rates and reduced fraud losses. Revenue grew 10% in 2024, with 15% GMV growth, and the company is guiding to further revenue and margin expansion in 2025. While more work is needed on the competitive landscape, we find the underlying technology compelling and see potential for sustained growth.

Nanalysis (TSE:NSCI) — mrkt cap $30mm; Price $.26; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Nanalysis is a leader in Benchmark Nuclear Magnetic Resonance (NMR) spectrometers. Adoption of Benchmark NMR is a growing trend, offering a lower-cost and more accurate alternative to traditional methods such as gas chromatography. Nanalysis primarily competes with Magritek and Bruker. Management appears to be rational and disciplined, now in the later stages of stabilizing the business following a disruptive service acquisition. While the company’s large service arm provides a meaningful competitive edge over Magritek, there remains some uncertainty regarding which product is technologically superior. That said, current valuation suggests the market is discounting the company entirely. If Nanalysis can achieve profitability through either the service or product segment, the stock could re-rate meaningfully. We will continue to monitor the development of both segments. Thanks to subscriber Peter for flagging this.

OVH Group (PA:OVH) — mrkt cap €1.9B; Price €12.69; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. OVH Group is a French cloud computing and web hosting company that offers Infrastructure-as-a-Service, including dedicated servers and public/private cloud solutions. We’ve been exploring ways to invest in the decoupling between Europe and the U.S., and one emerging angle is data repatriation. The U.S. currently hosts nearly 50% of global data centers, and as AI advances, data localization is increasingly viewed as a national security priority. OVH could be a potential European beneficiary. Further work is needed to assess its technical capabilities and product offerings to be able to capitalize on this trend.

Research Solutions (NAS:RSSS) — mrkt cap $89mm; Price $2.73; EV/EBITDA 9

PASS. We researched this company seven years ago and even owned it briefly. Following a major management change in 2021, we revisited it. Research Solutions offers a SaaS platform (Article Galaxy) that provides access and workflow tools for scientific literature. While the transactional segment is flat, the SaaS platform has grown—but not meaningfully given the market size. The company has restructured and expanded its salesforce, now comprising roughly a third of its ~140-person workforce. This has helped lift platform deployments but has also pressured margins. While we believe they can keep selling, we do not think this product solves a critical need. It’s a convenience layer, not core infrastructure. Even in R&D-heavy SMEs, usage is episodic and most journal access is already handled through direct licenses or other means. We believe management is aware of this issue and has made small bolt-on acquisitions but the value proposition still feels thin. It may eventually fit best as a tuck-in within a broader software suite. For now, we will continue to view their SaaS solution as a solid product in search of a must-have use case.

Sonder Holdings (NYSE:SOND) — mrkt cap $25mm; Price $2.27; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Sonder is a hospitality company that leases and manages properties to offer them as short-term rentals, providing a consistent hotel-like experience in apartment and condo settings. Unlike ABNB, Sonder directly manages its listings, ensuring standard quality and amenities for guests. While there is demand, a big question mark is whether the business model is even economically feasible. Sonder has fallen almost 98% since it went public. Revenues have increased over 4x in the last five years but operating expenses have also increased in lockstep. The result is a 25mm market cap company that is on the precipice of bankruptcy. Add onto this significant accounting issues makes Sonder un-investable even as a speculative position.

Red Violet (NAS:RDVT) — mrkt cap $548mm; Price $39.32; EV/EBITDA 31

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Red Violet is a data fusion company that combines disparate data sources such as property records, court filings, social media, and utility data into a unified identity graph used for fraud prevention, identity verification, and investigative purposes. Its two core products, IDI and FOREWARN, serve around 9,000 institutions and over 300,000 users including law enforcement, financial services, and real estate professionals. Revenue grew 25% in 2024 to $75 million, with gross margins above 80% and FCF up over 100% percent yoy. While unit economics are strong, shares trade at ~6x revenue, which appears slightly expensive. The key open question is competitive moat. More research is needed to understand why public-data competitors cannot easily replicate Red Violet’s offering and whether its AI-driven features offer a lasting advantage.

ProCore (NYSE:PCOR) — mrkt cap $8.9B; Price $57.23; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Procore Technologies is a cloud-based construction management software company that helps construction firms manage projects, resources, and financials from planning through completion. Procore serves contractors, owners, and subcontractors across the residential, commercial, and industrial sectors. It boasts almost 1T of construction spend on its platform with majority of spend in the USA and revenue retention rates ~95%. While it is a market leader with competition such as Autodesk in a distant second, and there are large growth opportunities, at 8x revenue it is too lofty a multiple to consider a position.

Ascent Industries (NAS:ACNT) — mrkt cap $128mm; Price $12.7; EV/EBITDA 36.5

PASS. We’ve been evaluating U.S. steel names in light of the 25% March tariffs on steel and aluminum. Ascent initially looked interesting as a small-cap with domestic steel exposure. The company operates in two unrelated segments: steel tubing and specialty chemicals. Its tubular steel business has seen six consecutive years of revenue decline, while the chemical segment has grown at a 6.9% CAGR. Management appears focused on divesting steel assets and reinvesting into the higher-margin chemical business. We find valuing the remaining chemical business challenging and will prioritize companies that benefit more directly from the tariffs.

Tantalus Systems (OTCQX: TGMPF) — mrkt cap $66mm; Price $1.38; EV/EBITDA 139.5

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Tantalus operates at the intersection of hardware, software, and IoT communications for grid modernization, serving over 300 public power and electric cooperative utilities. The company helps utilities extend the life of existing grid infrastructure rather than pursue costly overhauls—critical for budget-constrained municipal operators. Its solutions focus on advanced metering, edge analytics, and real-time grid visibility, enabling utilities to identify vulnerabilities and optimize performance. Revenue and headcount have grown steadily in recent years. Tantalus is currently rolling out its next-generation TRUSense Gateway, already deployed by 27 utilities, which expands sensing capabilities and supports integration with EVs and distributed energy resources. While the opportunity appears compelling, further diligence is needed to assess the adoption curve and long-term competitive positioning of its new platform.

California Resources Corporation (NYSE:CRC) — mrkt cap $3.1B; Price $34.42; EV/EBITDA 3.8

PASS. California Resources Corporation is an independent oil and natural gas company with operations concentrated in California, primarily in the San Joaquin Basin. Its reserves are in long-term decline and are expected to last approximately 10 years at current production levels. Although CRC generates substantial cash flow, its capital allocation strategy, dominated by aggressive share repurchases, undermines long-term value. For businesses with depleting asset bases, dividends are typically a more appropriate use of capital than buybacks. A company with terminally declining assets that repurchases all its shares still ends up at zero. We wrote about the pitfalls of share repurchases in greater detail here.

Mayville Engineering (NAS:MEC) — mrkt cap $255mm; Price $12.46; EV/EBITDA 6.2

PASS. Mayville Engineering Company is a leading U.S.-based, value-added manufacturing partner specializing in metal fabrication and aftermarket services for the automotive and agricultural sectors. MEC produces a range of precision components such as chassis and exhaust parts, and is recognized as the largest metal fabricator in the US with approximately 12% market share. MEC primarily serves OEM customers and maintains strong operational discipline with a track record of consistent profitability. However, MEC is significantly exposed to cyclical end markets, namely automotive and agriculture, which are currently under even more pressure due to a challenging tariff environment. Following a recent leadership transition, MEC has begun pivoting toward an M&A driven strategy aimed at diversifying its customer base and reducing dependence on its core industries. While MEC is well managed, the near-term macro headwinds and strategic transition lead us to pass.

Silvaco (NAS:SVCO) — mrkt cap $132mm; Price $4.58; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Silvaco specializes in technology computer-aided design (TCAD) and electronic design automation (EDA) software for the global semiconductor and photonics industries. Its tools support chip designers in modeling and optimizing advanced semiconductor devices. While the EDA market is dominated by Synopsys and Cadence, TCAD may experience renewed relevance as sub-5nm processes demand more precise physics-based simulations. Following discussions with management, we believe industry demand for TCAD is real, though Silvaco’s ability to capture this opportunity remains uncertain given its relatively narrow product suite. The company is working to expand and bundle its offerings to better compete, but we are remaining on the sidelines until there is clearer evidence of execution.

Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) — mrkt cap $65mm; Price $1.22; EV/EBITDA NA

SPECULATIVE POSITION INITIATED. Fossil Group is undergoing a serious reset—exiting smartwatches, cutting deep into SG&A, and pivoting toward a more focused, wholesale-driven model. The company is closing ~50 retail stores, exiting smaller international markets via distributor transitions, and concentrating on core geographies like the U.S. and India. Early signs of progress are encouraging: Q4 margins expanded 630 bps, adjusted operating income turned positive, and another $100mm in SG&A cuts are planned for 2025. Concerns around the licensing business have eased somewhat with the extension of the Michael Kors agreement through 2027. With ~$160mm in liquidity, structural cost reductions underway, and a tighter operating model, we’re initiating a speculative equity position. Upside is substantial if new management continues to execute. For income-focused investors, the baby bonds maturing in 2026 (Ticker:FOSLL) look appealing. YTW is ~30% and investors clip a 10% income yield—these exchange-traded notes are now better supported by improving financial discipline.

Amplitude Inc (NAS:AMPL) — mrkt cap $1.3B; Price $10.33; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Amplitude is a digital analytics platform used by both SMBs and enterprises, including companies like Instacart. It helps customers understand user behavior across websites and apps—what features users engage with, where they encounter friction, and what drives retention—serving as the system of record for the digital customer journey. While Amplitude initially focused on SMBs, it has struggled to gain traction in the enterprise segment, due in part to broader macroeconomic challenges and a lack of experienced leadership. Revenue growth has stalled, and the stock has declined by over 80% from its 2021 peak. At the enterprise level, Amplitude competes with Adobe, Google Analytics, and various bespoke data warehouse solutions. Further analysis is needed to evaluate the product and execution in the current landscape.

Ambarella (NAS:AMBA) — mrkt cap $2.1B; Price $50.61; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Ambarella specializes in developing low-power, high-resolution video compression and computer vision processing semiconductors. The company offers highly integrated, scalable chip solutions supported by comprehensive software development kits, enabling customers to efficiently create differentiated products. Its technology is used across a broad range of applications, including automotive cameras, security systems, and consumer devices, delivering advanced intelligent video capabilities. As the wave of robotics and edge AI devices emerges, the demand for low-power vision processing is expected to grow significantly. NVIDIA is well aware of this and has been making aggressive moves into this space with its Jetson platform, introducing the potential for strong competition. While we are positive on the trends Ambarella is positioned to benefit from, the current valuation, approaching 8x revenue, is difficult to justify. We will revisit the company should the stock undergo a pullback.

Marqeta  (NAS:MQ) — mrkt cap $2.2B; Price $4.41; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Marqeta was an early mover in card issuing for tech companies, offering a flexible API platform for physical and virtual card programs. Its largest customer, Square (Block), still accounts for ~46% of revenue. That concentration is risky—and the 2024 contract renewal exposed Marqeta’s lack of pricing power and contributing to a 26% yoy revenue decline. This dynamic plays out across their customer base: every renewal seems to result in worse economics for Marqeta. Meanwhile, competitors like Stripe are reaching feature parity and bundling services. Square could eventually in-house this or switch providers. The company is near breakeven on cash flow, and with ~$1B in cash—nearly half its market cap—it has time to figure things out, but the core business looks increasingly like a commoditized utility that gets squeezed with every renewal.

Bridger Aerospace (NAS:BAER) — mrkt cap $65mm; Price $1.20; EV/EBITDA 10

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Bridger Aerospace provides aerial firefighting services—including water scooping and surveillance—primarily to U.S. government agencies. The company operates a fleet of specialized aircraft and supports wildfire suppression through rapid, technology-driven response capabilities. Government clients pay both for availability (standby or “exclusive use” during high-risk periods) and for flight hours when aircraft are deployed. BAER has secured several long-term contracts, driven by record fire activity last year and early this year. This is significant given the company’s high fixed cost base and past reliance on flight-hour revenue, which previously resulted in profitability only during the third quarter, when most fires occur. With a highly levered balance sheet, a more consistent earnings profile could drive a meaningful re-rating.

Computer Modeling (TSX:CMG) — mrkt cap $663mm; Price $8.08; EV/EBITDA 17

PASS. Computer Modelling Group is a Canada-based software company specializing in reservoir simulation technology for the energy industry. Its simulation tools are used by all of the world’s super-major oil companies. While CMG has established a strong niche in this category, it is now pursuing a new phase of growth through acquisitions. However, with a valuation near 5x revenues, we believe the market is already pricing in significant growth that we view with some caution.

Siyata Mobile (NAS:SYTA) — mrkt cap $2mm; Price $2.08; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. We rarely review companies this small, but the volume is over 1 million shares a day on what is a tiny market cap. A reader reached out to us about this busted 2020 IPO, which is now operating as a shell for a target company set to go public. The target company, Core Gaming, is valued at $160 million (by valuation “experts”), and legacy shareholders are set to receive 10% of the post-merger implied valuation of ~$180 million—suggesting a potential 9x return from the current price. However, as we dug deeper, Core Gaming is just a Delaware holding company that recently acquired a Hong Kong-based mobile gaming business, Newbyera. The underlying company appears to have almost no gross margin and no realistic path to profitability. The fairness opinion assigning it a $160 million valuation is, at best, very difficult to justify and, at worst, a total farce. We are passing.

Verra Mobility (NAS:VRRM) — mrkt cap $3.2B; Price $20.32; EV/EBITDA 12

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Verra Mobility is a leading provider of smart mobility technology, offering solutions that enhance transportation safety, efficiency, and connectivity. The company’s services include automated toll and violations management for commercial fleets, as well as road safety camera programs for governments, addressing red-light, speed, and school bus stop-arm violations. VRRM is the market leader in rental car cashless tolling and photo enforcement, with an estimated market share of nearly 90%. In the short term, trends favor VRRM as automation increases. However, as self-driving vehicle adoption grows, violations are likely to decline, and OEMs may bypass intermediaries like Verra. Further analysis is required to assess the long-term implications.

Omega Flex (NAS:OFLX) — mrkt cap $414mm; Price $41.05; EV/EBITDA 16

PASS. Omega Flex manufactures flexible metal hose systems primarily for gas and fluid transport in residential, commercial, and industrial applications. The company is recognized for its emphasis on safety, ease of installation, and corrosion resistance, serving markets such as construction, utilities, and transportation. OFLX operates in a duopoly with Gastite, competing mainly through rebates offered to builders, contractors, and distributors. Contractors are generally resistant to switching products unless pricing or supply constraints necessitate a change. The stringent safety standards surrounding corrugated stainless steel tubing prevent commoditization, with brands being so well established that they are explicitly referenced in building codes. OFLX has consistently been profitable, maintaining net margins above 15%. While the business benefits from durable demand and local market effects, its valuation reflects these strengths. We will wait for a pullback before initiating a position.

Finance of America (NYS:FOA) — mrkt cap $178mm; Price $18.00; P/B .57

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. The AAG acquisition in 2022 significantly boosted FOA’s retail and marketing capabilities, making it the dominant player in reverse mortgages (~37% share). The reverse mortgage industry is much better regulated today and stands to benefit from demographic tailwinds, as 10,000 baby boomers retire daily with $14T in home equity available. While the stock saw a negative AH reaction yesterday due to a slight earnings miss, the company still grew reverse mortgage originations by 19% YoY ($1.9B in 2024) despite a difficult and volatile rate environment. With falling rates expected, demand for reverse mortgages should increase. With a P/B of 0.57, FOA trades at a discount despite positive adjusted net income, cost reductions, and product innovation. Regulatory complexity keeps away smaller players and reputation risk keeps away larger players. While FOA is sensitive to higher rates and home values, we think the upside is significant and worth the risk. This was originally put on our watchlist from Twitter user @SFarringtonBKC.

Cellebrite (NAS:CLBT) — mrkt cap $3.7B; Price $17.15; EV/EBITDA 47

PASS. Cellebrite is an Israeli digital intelligence company specializing in data extraction, analysis, and forensic tools for law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and private organizations. It is best known for its Universal Forensic Extraction Device, which can unlock and retrieve data from mobile devices, playing a crucial role in criminal investigations. More importantly, Cellebrite synthesizes insights and analysis from the unstructured data it extracts. Cellebrite boasts a 120% revenue retention rate and has compounded revenue at over a 20% CAGR for the past several years. All of the top 20 police organizations in the U.S. are customers, and the company serves over 7,000 customers globally. While its industry position remains strong, the stock is currently trading at nearly 10x revenue—a valuation we consider too lofty. We will look to initiate a position on a pullback.

Lectra (PA:LSS) — mrkt cap €1.03B; Price €26.5; EV/EBITDA 12

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Lectra is a French technology company specializing in software and cutting machines for the fashion, automotive, and furniture industries. It provides CAD and manufacturing systems to optimize fabric and leather cutting, helping businesses improve efficiency and reduce waste. Its machines can create dresses or cut airbags out of thousands of different fabrics. Although Lectra has leading market shares, its share prices have stalled over the last several years due to a slowdown in luxury and automotive spending. It has recently begun a more acquisitive strategy after organically growing for the last two decades. Further analysis is needed to assess the returns on these investments and the progress of their integration.

Fluence (NAS:FLNC) — mrkt cap $1.12B; Price $6.19; EV/EBITDA 61

PASS.  Fluence is a global leader in energy storage technology and services, established as a joint venture by Siemens and The AES Corporation in 2018. As an integrator, FLNC provides advanced battery-based energy storage solutions that enable reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable power systems worldwide. Since its IPO, the company’s stock has declined by nearly 85%, largely due to mounting competition from Tesla and Chinese manufacturers. Originally one of the earliest innovators in energy storage, Fluence offered bundled solutions to its customers. However, as clients have grown more sophisticated, the market has shifted toward increasingly modular offerings. FLNC now faces pressure from more vertically integrated and better-funded competitors, and while the industry as a whole continues to expand, that growth is not sufficient to offset these challenges.

Payoneer Global (NAS:PAYO) — mrkt cap $3.5B; Price $9.95; EV/EBITDA 17

PASS. PAYO is a fintech focused on cross-border payments for SMBs, helping them receive and transfer funds from global marketplaces. The company processes ~$65 billion in annual volume and offers SMBs a wallet with invoicing, bill payments, currency conversion, and a debit card. Nearly all major marketplaces, including Etsy and Upwork, use Payoneer for seamless freelancer and SMB payments, making it a well-known brand in emerging markets. However, competition has intensified, particularly from Wise, which offers many of the same services while also passing interest on float back to customers—a growing expectation among SMBs (in contrast to PAYO which retains the interest income). The market is more crowded, putting pressure on PAYO’s ability to differentiate and grow margins. While the company is trading at a reasonable valuation, we believe growth concerns limit upside and are waiting for a better entry point.

Angi Inc (NAS:ANGI) — mrkt cap $865mm; Price $1.72; EV/EBITDA 9

PASS. Angi operates as a marketplace and lead generation platform connecting homeowners with service professionals while also fulfilling some services directly. IAC will be spinning off Angi by the end of Q1. Post-spin, IAC’s CEO, Joey Levin, is transitioning to become Angi’s chairman. The core issue with Angi is its reliance on heavy advertising spend to drive home services demand, which in turn attracts service providers willing to pay for leads. Home services remain inherently fragmented and difficult to standardize, making fixed pricing and seamless bookings a challenge. The company’s top-line revenue has been shrinking, with management claiming to have cut unprofitable traffic and pivoted to a consumer choice model. While this shift improves customer experience, it also means less control over matching (and gross margin). Ultimately, we lack confidence in Angi’s top line health to make an investment despite its optically low valuation.

Celsius (NAS:CELH) — mrkt cap $5.6B; Price $23.74; EV/EBITDA 22

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. Celsius is a functional energy drink brand positioned as a healthier alternative to Monster and Red Bull. Celsius continues to gain share in an energy drink category that remains flat, increasing its share to 12% from 11%. Despite short-term revenue volatility due to Pepsi’s initial overstocking and subsequent destocking (~$120M inventory reduction in early 2024), retail sell-through remains strong. This headwind should wash out in Q1 2025, with growth resuming. Amazon sales remain robust, and international expansion presents a large opportunity. Celsius operates with no debt, ~$900mm of cash and a disciplined management team. The recent $75mm copacking facility acquisition will allow for greater control over production, margin expansion, and flexibility for innovation. In sum, Celsius is a share gainer experiencing temporary logistical disruptions. The company has been on our watchlist a while and is just now cheap enough. Volatility is expected, and we will likely add opportunistically.

Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) — mrkt cap $5.95B; Price $26.02; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Bloom Energy is a leader in solid oxide fuel cells, which provide on-site, low-carbon electricity for businesses and utilities. These fuel cells convert natural gas or hydrogen into electricity with higher efficiency and lower emissions than traditional power sources. Demand for Bloom Energy’s technology is rising, particularly among data centers, which are relying more on on-site generation to supplement with the electric grid due to increasing power generation constraints. Fuel cells occupy a middle ground between power plants and renewables. While there are short term needs, future demand for fuel cells is more uncertain. Battery technology is advancing more rapidly, with many data centers also adopting solar and battery storage. Without significant cost reductions and improved durability, fuel cells will likely be outpaced by cheaper, more scalable alternatives.

Cardlytics (NAS:CDLX) — mrkt cap $171mm; Price $3.37; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Cardlytics is an ad-tech platform that connects advertisers to banks, powering card-linked offers for ~166M banking users, including at JPM, BofA, and Wells Fargo. Cardlytics is the only company that has access to this data but despite the appeal of its business model, it has been plagued by execution issues. The company stock is down 98% from highs given a series of overpriced acquisitions during the pandemic, a slowdown in ad spend, and general business underperformance. CDLX has primarily struggled with ad delivery, with advertisers frustrated by a lack of transparency and inconsistent ad performance. CDLX blames banking infrastructure and approval bottlenecks for its inability to significantly improve its platform. The company posted Q3 2024 revenue of $67.1 million, down 13% yoy, and we estimate that they are burning close to ~5mm cash a quarter, which given their  ~$120million liquidity position gives them decent runway to turn things around. Under new CEO Amit Gupta, the company is transitioning to pricing models that advertisers will find more convenient. The core idea—monetizing bank transaction data through card offers—remains interesting, but execution remains subpar. We’re passing for now.