We had added to our Remitly position (NAS:RELY). Remitly reported its earnings yesterday after the market closed. Despite posting a solid earnings report, the market responded negatively, sending the stock down as much as 23% in after-hours trading. As I write, RELY is trading at $15.35, marking a new 52-week low. Some analysts have pointed out a slight/tiny revenue miss, but all metrics were within the range management had anticipated. The management team continues to execute on their growth strategy, and the business is scaling as expected. Critics may point to high stock-based
Card Factory, a leading UK-based, vertically integrated retailer of greeting cards and a significant seller of celebration essentials and gifts (balloons, party supplies, picture frames, stuffed toys, etc.), has cultivated a strong brand identity by excelling in value, quality, and selection. Despite competitors possibly matching them on two of these dimensions, it's highly unlikely any can surpass Card Factory across all three. Card Factory is in a position to earn high returns on capital for many years to come. Volumes of the greeting card market are set to remain flat or be in slight decline, and the market is viewing Card Factory as a ...
We have exited out of Rex American (NYSE:REX). REX is up 50% since our initiation report (here). We stated that there was ~50% upside in the report. REX is one of the best-run ethanol producers in the US. REX has never lost money in the last decade despite volatile commodity cycles and generated record profits in 2023 due to high crush spreads. Contrast this to other publicly listed competitors such as Alto and GPRE that floundered despite a favorable environment. Although we believe the management team is superb, our reason…
One of our core positions, Doc Martens (LSE:DOCS), dropped 34% today before slightly recovering a few percentage points to close down 29% on the day. The market responded to two significant announcements:
1. DOCS issued a trading update forecasting a challenging year ahead for wholesale revenue in FY 2025, continuing the difficulties faced in FY 2024. The market had anticipated better news on the wholesale front. Additionally, the company has experienced single-digit inflation in its cost base, which will not be passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices.
We have trimmed META (NAS:META). It is up 175% since our initiation report in March 2022 (report here). We added to our position in November 2022 as a myriad of fears drove META down 50% from initiation (here).
META is a compelling reminder of how inefficient markets can be. In the span of a little over a year, narratives have reversed for META in almost all domains: Contrary to earlier apprehensions, META has weathered the Apple Ad Tracking Transparency storm and now has record engagement and ad revenues; TikTok fears have diminished as the platform has increasingly become a focal point of geopolitical tension;
We believe two factors are driving the AI megatrend: Higher computation and higher networking needs. AI applications demand high bandwidth and low latency, crucial factors for both training and inference workloads. We believe that AI technology is still in its nascent stages, and are actively seeking companies poised to benefit from this trend. AWE emerged as a compelling prospect, positioned to leverage these evolving networking trends. However, we found evaluating their competitive positioning challenging, especially considering the integration risks associated with their recent acquisitions...
We have exited out of Titan Machinery (NAS:TITN). It is down about 15% from the time we initiated our position in July 2023 (report here). We stated that TITN had upside potential of 30% and since then, the below factor has influenced our decision to sell. The complexity within their business operations has proven to be more significant than we initially anticipated. We believed that TITN’s operational changes over the last several years, which aimed to increase efficiencies and cashflows, were more sustainable. However, the environment from rapidly...
Doc Martens (DOCS) is a UK-based boot brand that has sold off 80% from its overpriced IPO in January, 2021. The brand has experienced a recent revenue decline driven by several short-term operational and inventory mishaps along with general cyclical challenges in the footwear category. The operational and inventory challenges are now fixed, and it is more likely than not that the footwear category will improve within the next 12 to 24 months. The market is attributing this revenue decline as a possible impairment to the Doc Martens brand but we think this couldn’t be further from the truth. DOCS is a strong...
There are only a few luxury brands globally recognized for their enduring appeal: Burberry is one of these select few, having existed for over 168 years. Instances where such brands trade at a significant discount to their intrinsic value are rare. This occurs when the brand has some design mishaps or is undergoing some controversy. Fortunately, luxury heritage brands are very durable and can survive mismanagement. Burberry has been in the midst of a seven-year transformation aimed at elevating the brand and revamping its product offerings. These restructurings started with the previous CEO Marco Gobbetti in 2017..
We believe Zumiez has made significant missteps in their buyback programs. While the current low stock price mitigates the issue, the absence of public or private acknowledgment of these mistakes by management leads us to anticipate a repeat in the future. We discussed this thoroughly in our activist letter on 7/7/2023 (link here). Before the submission of this open letter to Zumiez board we had previously maintained email and video exchanges with management. Regrettably, after the letter, management ceased all communications with us. In the realm of small-cap...
