Stock Sonar

Fossil Group (NAS:FOSL) — mrkt cap $65mm; Price $1.22; EV/EBITDA NA

SPECULATIVE POSITION INITIATED. Fossil Group is undergoing a serious reset—exiting smartwatches, cutting deep into SG&A, and pivoting toward a more focused, wholesale-driven model. The company is closing ~50 retail stores, exiting smaller international markets via distributor transitions, and concentrating on core geographies like the U.S. and India. Early signs of progress are encouraging: Q4 margins expanded 630 bps, adjusted operating income turned positive, and another $100mm in SG&A cuts are planned for 2025. Concerns around the licensing business have eased somewhat with the extension of the Michael Kors agreement through 2027. With ~$160mm in liquidity, structural cost reductions underway, and a tighter operating model, we’re initiating a speculative equity position. Upside is substatntial if new management continues to execute. For income-focused investors, the baby bonds maturing in 2026 (Ticker:FOSLL) look appealing. YTW is ~30% and investors clip a 10% income yield—these exchange-traded notes are now better supported by improving financial discipline.

Amplitude Inc (NAS:AMPL) — mrkt cap $1.3B; Price $10.33; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Amplitude is a digital analytics platform used by both SMBs and enterprises, including companies like Instacart. It helps customers understand user behavior across websites and apps—what features users engage with, where they encounter friction, and what drives retention—serving as the system of record for the digital customer journey. While Amplitude initially focused on SMBs, it has struggled to gain traction in the enterprise segment, due in part to broader macroeconomic challenges and a lack of experienced leadership. Revenue growth has stalled, and the stock has declined by over 80% from its 2021 peak. At the enterprise level, Amplitude competes with Adobe, Google Analytics, and various bespoke data warehouse solutions. Further analysis is needed to evaluate the product and execution in the current landscape.

Ambarella (NAS:AMBA) — mrkt cap $2.1B; Price $50.61; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Ambarella specializes in developing low-power, high-resolution video compression and computer vision processing semiconductors. The company offers highly integrated, scalable chip solutions supported by comprehensive software development kits, enabling customers to efficiently create differentiated products. Its technology is used across a broad range of applications, including automotive cameras, security systems, and consumer devices, delivering advanced intelligent video capabilities. As the wave of robotics and edge AI devices emerges, the demand for low-power vision processing is expected to grow significantly. NVIDIA is well aware of this and has been making aggressive moves into this space with its Jetson platform, introducing the potential for strong competition. While we are positive on the trends Ambarella is positioned to benefit from, the current valuation, approaching 8x revenue, is difficult to justify. We will revisit the company should the stock undergo a pullback.

Marqeta  (NAS:MQ) — mrkt cap $2.2B; Price $4.41; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Marqeta was an early mover in card issuing for tech companies, offering a flexible API platform for physical and virtual card programs. Its largest customer, Square (Block), still accounts for ~46% of revenue. That concentration is risky—and the 2024 contract renewal exposed Marqeta’s lack of pricing power and contributing to a 26% yoy revenue decline. This dynamic plays out across their customer base: every renewal seems to result in worse economics for Marqeta. Meanwhile, competitors like Stripe are reaching feature parity and bundling services. Square could eventually in-house this or switch providers. The company is near breakeven on cash flow, and with ~$1B in cash—nearly half its market cap—it has time to figure things out, but the core business looks increasingly like a commoditized utility that gets squeezed with every renewal.

Bridger Aerospace (NAS:BAER) — mrkt cap $65mm; Price $1.20; EV/EBITDA 10

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Bridger Aerospace provides aerial firefighting services—including water scooping and surveillance—primarily to U.S. government agencies. The company operates a fleet of specialized aircraft and supports wildfire suppression through rapid, technology-driven response capabilities. Government clients pay both for availability (standby or “exclusive use” during high-risk periods) and for flight hours when aircraft are deployed. BAER has secured several long-term contracts, driven by record fire activity last year and early this year. This is significant given the company’s high fixed cost base and past reliance on flight-hour revenue, which previously resulted in profitability only during the third quarter, when most fires occur. With a highly levered balance sheet, a more consistent earnings profile could drive a meaningful re-rating.

Computer Modeling (TSX:CMG) — mrkt cap $663mm; Price $8.08; EV/EBITDA 17

PASS. Computer Modelling Group is a Canada-based software company specializing in reservoir simulation technology for the energy industry. Its simulation tools are used by all of the world’s super-major oil companies. While CMG has established a strong niche in this category, it is now pursuing a new phase of growth through acquisitions. However, with a valuation near 5x revenues, we believe the market is already pricing in significant growth that we view with some caution.

Siyata Mobile (NAS:SYTA) — mrkt cap $2mm; Price $2.08; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. We rarely review companies this small, but the volume is over 1 million shares a day on what is a tiny market cap. A reader reached out to us about this busted 2020 IPO, which is now operating as a shell for a target company set to go public. The target company, Core Gaming, is valued at $160 million (by valuation “experts”), and legacy shareholders are set to receive 10% of the post-merger implied valuation of ~$180 million—suggesting a potential 9x return from the current price. However, as we dug deeper, Core Gaming is just a Delaware holding company that recently acquired a Hong Kong-based mobile gaming business, Newbyera. The underlying company appears to have almost no gross margin and no realistic path to profitability. The fairness opinion assigning it a $160 million valuation is, at best, very difficult to justify and, at worst, a total farce. We are passing.

Verra Mobility (NAS:VRRM) — mrkt cap $3.2B; Price $20.32; EV/EBITDA 12

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Verra Mobility is a leading provider of smart mobility technology, offering solutions that enhance transportation safety, efficiency, and connectivity. The company’s services include automated toll and violations management for commercial fleets, as well as road safety camera programs for governments, addressing red-light, speed, and school bus stop-arm violations. VRRM is the market leader in rental car cashless tolling and photo enforcement, with an estimated market share of nearly 90%. In the short term, trends favor VRRM as automation increases. However, as self-driving vehicle adoption grows, violations are likely to decline, and OEMs may bypass intermediaries like Verra. Further analysis is required to assess the long-term implications.

Omega Flex (NAS:OFLX) — mrkt cap $414mm; Price $41.05; EV/EBITDA 16

PASS. Omega Flex manufactures flexible metal hose systems primarily for gas and fluid transport in residential, commercial, and industrial applications. The company is recognized for its emphasis on safety, ease of installation, and corrosion resistance, serving markets such as construction, utilities, and transportation. OFLX operates in a duopoly with Gastite, competing mainly through rebates offered to builders, contractors, and distributors. Contractors are generally resistant to switching products unless pricing or supply constraints necessitate a change. The stringent safety standards surrounding corrugated stainless steel tubing prevent commoditization, with brands being so well established that they are explicitly referenced in building codes. OFLX has consistently been profitable, maintaining net margins above 15%. While the business benefits from durable demand and local market effects, its valuation reflects these strengths. We will wait for a pullback before initiating a position.

Finance of America (NYS:FOA) — mrkt cap $178mm; Price $18.00; P/B .57

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. The AAG acquisition in 2022 significantly boosted FOA’s retail and marketing capabilities, making it the dominant player in reverse mortgages (~37% share). The reverse mortgage industry is much better regulated today and stands to benefit from demographic tailwinds, as 10,000 baby boomers retire daily with $14T in home equity available. While the stock saw a negative AH reaction yesterday due to a slight earnings miss, the company still grew reverse mortgage originations by 19% YoY ($1.9B in 2024) despite a difficult and volatile rate environment. With falling rates expected, demand for reverse mortgages should increase. With a P/B of 0.57, FOA trades at a discount despite positive adjusted net income, cost reductions, and product innovation. Regulatory complexity keeps away smaller players and reputation risk keeps away larger players. While FOA is sensitive to higher rates and home values, we think the upside is significant and worth the risk. This was originally put on our watchlist from Twitter user @SFarringtonBKC.

Cellebrite (NAS:CLBT) — mrkt cap $3.7B; Price $17.15; EV/EBITDA 47

PASS. Cellebrite is an Israeli digital intelligence company specializing in data extraction, analysis, and forensic tools for law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and private organizations. It is best known for its Universal Forensic Extraction Device, which can unlock and retrieve data from mobile devices, playing a crucial role in criminal investigations. More importantly, Cellebrite synthesizes insights and analysis from the unstructured data it extracts. Cellebrite boasts a 120% revenue retention rate and has compounded revenue at over a 20% CAGR for the past several years. All of the top 20 police organizations in the U.S. are customers, and the company serves over 7,000 customers globally. While its industry position remains strong, the stock is currently trading at nearly 10x revenue—a valuation we consider too lofty. We will look to initiate a position on a pullback.

Lectra (PA:LSS) — mrkt cap €1.03B; Price €26.5; EV/EBITDA 12

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Lectra is a French technology company specializing in software and cutting machines for the fashion, automotive, and furniture industries. It provides CAD and manufacturing systems to optimize fabric and leather cutting, helping businesses improve efficiency and reduce waste. Its machines can create dresses or cut airbags out of thousands of different fabrics. Although Lectra has leading market shares, its share prices have stalled over the last several years due to a slowdown in luxury and automotive spending. It has recently begun a more acquisitive strategy after organically growing for the last two decades. Further analysis is needed to assess the returns on these investments and the progress of their integration.

Fluence (NAS:FLNC) — mrkt cap $1.12B; Price $6.19; EV/EBITDA 61

PASS.  Fluence is a global leader in energy storage technology and services, established as a joint venture by Siemens and The AES Corporation in 2018. As an integrator, FLNC provides advanced battery-based energy storage solutions that enable reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable power systems worldwide. Since its IPO, the company’s stock has declined by nearly 85%, largely due to mounting competition from Tesla and Chinese manufacturers. Originally one of the earliest innovators in energy storage, Fluence offered bundled solutions to its customers. However, as clients have grown more sophisticated, the market has shifted toward increasingly modular offerings. FLNC now faces pressure from more vertically integrated and better-funded competitors, and while the industry as a whole continues to expand, that growth is not sufficient to offset these challenges.

Payoneer Global (NAS:PAYO) — mrkt cap $3.5B; Price $9.95; EV/EBITDA 17

PASS. PAYO is a fintech focused on cross-border payments for SMBs, helping them receive and transfer funds from global marketplaces. The company processes ~$65 billion in annual volume and offers SMBs a wallet with invoicing, bill payments, currency conversion, and a debit card. Nearly all major marketplaces, including Etsy and Upwork, use Payoneer for seamless freelancer and SMB payments, making it a well-known brand in emerging markets. However, competition has intensified, particularly from Wise, which offers many of the same services while also passing interest on float back to customers—a growing expectation among SMBs (in contrast to PAYO which retains the interest income). The market is more crowded, putting pressure on PAYO’s ability to differentiate and grow margins. While the company is trading at a reasonable valuation, we believe growth concerns limit upside and are waiting for a better entry point.

Angi Inc (NAS:ANGI) — mrkt cap $865mm; Price $1.72; EV/EBITDA 9

PASS. Angi operates as a marketplace and lead generation platform connecting homeowners with service professionals while also fulfilling some services directly. IAC will be spinning off Angi by the end of Q1. Post-spin, IAC’s CEO, Joey Levin, is transitioning to become Angi’s chairman. The core issue with Angi is its reliance on heavy advertising spend to drive home services demand, which in turn attracts service providers willing to pay for leads. Home services remain inherently fragmented and difficult to standardize, making fixed pricing and seamless bookings a challenge. The company’s top-line revenue has been shrinking, with management claiming to have cut unprofitable traffic and pivoted to a consumer choice model. While this shift improves customer experience, it also means less control over matching (and gross margin). Ultimately, we lack confidence in Angi’s top line health to make an investment despite its optically low valuation.

Celsius (NAS:CELH) — mrkt cap $5.6B; Price $23.74; EV/EBITDA 22

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. Celsius is a functional energy drink brand positioned as a healthier alternative to Monster and Red Bull. Celsius continues to gain share in an energy drink category that remains flat, increasing its share to 12% from 11%. Despite short-term revenue volatility due to Pepsi’s initial overstocking and subsequent destocking (~$120M inventory reduction in early 2024), retail sell-through remains strong. This headwind should wash out in Q1 2025, with growth resuming. Amazon sales remain robust, and international expansion presents a large opportunity. Celsius operates with no debt, ~$900mm of cash and a disciplined management team. The recent $75mm copacking facility acquisition will allow for greater control over production, margin expansion, and flexibility for innovation. In sum, Celsius is a share gainer experiencing temporary logistical disruptions. The company has been on our watchlist a while and is just now cheap enough. Volatility is expected, and we will likely add opportunistically.

Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) — mrkt cap $5.95B; Price $26.02; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Bloom Energy is a leader in solid oxide fuel cells, which provide on-site, low-carbon electricity for businesses and utilities. These fuel cells convert natural gas or hydrogen into electricity with higher efficiency and lower emissions than traditional power sources. Demand for Bloom Energy’s technology is rising, particularly among data centers, which are relying more on on-site generation to supplement with the electric grid due to increasing power generation constraints. Fuel cells occupy a middle ground between power plants and renewables. While there are short term needs, future demand for fuel cells is more uncertain. Battery technology is advancing more rapidly, with many data centers also adopting solar and battery storage. Without significant cost reductions and improved durability, fuel cells will likely be outpaced by cheaper, more scalable alternatives.

Cardlytics (NAS:CDLX) — mrkt cap $171mm; Price $3.37; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Cardlytics is an ad-tech platform that connects advertisers to banks, powering card-linked offers for ~166M banking users, including at JPM, BofA, and Wells Fargo. Cardlytics is the only company that has access to this data but despite the appeal of its business model, it has been plagued by execution issues. The company stock is down 98% from highs given a series of overpriced acquisitions during the pandemic, a slowdown in ad spend, and general business underperformance. CDLX has primarily struggled with ad delivery, with advertisers frustrated by a lack of transparency and inconsistent ad performance. CDLX blames banking infrastructure and approval bottlenecks for its inability to significantly improve its platform. The company posted Q3 2024 revenue of $67.1 million, down 13% yoy, and we estimate that they are burning close to ~5mm cash a quarter, which given their  ~$120million liquidity position gives them decent runway to turn things around. Under new CEO Amit Gupta, the company is transitioning to pricing models that advertisers will find more convenient. The core idea—monetizing bank transaction data through card offers—remains interesting, but execution remains subpar. We’re passing for now.

Bill Holdings (NYS:BILL) — mrkt cap $6.2B; Price $61.49; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. BILL built a strong business automating accounts payable and accounts receivable for small businesses, with integrations into QuickBooks and a solid reputation in the accounting channel. However, competition has intensified and switching costs are low. The company has tried moving upmarket into mid-sized businesses, particularly after acquiring Divvy for spend management, but execution has been inconsistent. Despite a sharp 35% drop after an earnings miss, the stock still isn’t cheap. Slowing growth and rising competition suggest BILL may struggle to justify its valuation unless it can differentiate from competitors and drive sustainable mid-market adoption.

Hydreight Tech (OTCQB:HYDTF) — mrkt cap $24mm; Price $1.04; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Hydreight started as a niche platform touted as the “uber for nurses” enabling entrepreneurial nurses to monetize their licenses independently rather than working in traditional hospital settings. By building an extensive compliance, physician, and pharmacy network, the company provided a turnkey solution that allowed nurses to offer IV therapy and wellness services without regulatory headaches. The company has since offered white-label solutions for medspas and clinics, allowing them to add mobile services under their brand. More recently, the company has entered a new high-growth vertical—facilitating B2C telehealth brands by providing the infrastructure needed to sell prescription-based treatments (GLP-1s, peptides, TRT, etc.) across all 50 states. This essentially lets any emerging Hims or Roman competitor to bypass regulatory barriers and launch nationwide almost instantly. After a strong stock run-up, shares have retraced 50% from their highs following a capital raise. While we like the core business and the optionality from new verticals, nurse adoption on the platform appears to have stalled (following considerable growth). This could be worth revisiting once we see signs of traction in newer verticals or increased nurse engagement.

Identiv (NAS:INVE) — mrkt cap $85mm; Price $3.58; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Identiv specializes in IoT, focusing on RFID and BLE technology (low-energy devices). The company recently divested its physical security division for $145 million in cash and currently trades at approximately 60% of that value. The remaining business consists of a subscale RFID segment, generating around $20 million in annual revenue with a cost base of $20 million. With gross margins of 25%, Identiv is expected to incur annual losses of approximately $15–20 million. The new CEO plans to drive growth both organically and inorganically, allocating about 60% of the company’s cash balance toward these initiatives. While promising, we will wait to see further crystallization of both the strategy and decision making of management.

Mammoth Energy (NAS:TUSK) — mrkt cap $146mm; Price $3.03; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Mammoth Energy Services provides infrastructure solutions, including electric utility construction and oilfield services, supporting energy production and transmission. The company recently received a $160 million litigation payment from Puerto Rico, making it a net-net. At the same time, leadership has shifted, with the CEO resigning and the VP of Corporate Development stepping in. The setup looks promising—industry tailwinds and a stock trading below cash create a compelling opportunity. However, TUSK has lost money for the past five years, and its cash could be squandered through poor acquisitions or ongoing losses. We’ll be analyzing the new CEO’s strategy and planned changes.

Netlist (NAS:NLST) — mrkt cap $194mm; Price $.71; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Netlist provides high-performance semiconductor solutions for memory and storage. The company is embroiled in multiple patent lawsuits against Samsung and Micron over alleged infringements of its memory IP. Recently, it secured a $300 million damages award against Samsung, about 1.5x NLST’s current market cap. However, the market is heavily discounting this outcome, expecting appeals to either overturn or remand the case. Our initial interest stemmed from Netlist’s IP in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a sector gaining attention due to AI-driven demand, but its actual exposure to HBM is limited. We initially thought a settlement was more likely, but given the unpredictable nature of litigation and the significant discretion judges have—often leading to widely varying rulings—we are passing on the name.

Matrix Services (NAS:MTRX) — mrkt cap $385mm; Price $13.99; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Matrix Service Company provides engineering, construction, and maintenance services for energy and industrial applications, with a strong focus on the LNG industry, including cryogenic terminals and peak shaving LNG facilities. Its backlog recently hit $1.4 billion, growing ~40% YoY—despite operating under a prior administration that was less favorable to natural gas. With the Trump administration, LNG infrastructure is likely to expand to support a growing export market. However, profitability remains a concern. Even in its best year, MTRX generated just $30 million in net income on $1.4 billion in revenue—a 2% net margin. This isn’t a commoditized industry, suggesting MTRX may have an inflated cost structure. Employee reviews indicate a top-heavy organization, with layers of middle management while field employees make up a smaller fraction. Shareholders appear to be last in line for returns..

Cantaloupe (NAS:CTLP) — mrkt cap $605mm; Price $8.29; EV/EBITDA 22

PASS. Cantaloupe is the leader in U.S.-based vending machine payment processing, commanding approximately 70% market share. As a first mover in integrating credit card processors into vending machines, it established strong relationships with major operators like Canteen and Sodexo, the largest providers of snack and beverage vending machines in the U.S. Over time, Cantaloupe has expanded its offerings, evolving from a payment processor to a vending management software provider. Cantaloupe is heavily tied to the vending machine and micro-store industries, both of which are relatively mature. Its growth will largely depend on either increased purchasing activity or capturing additional market share. However, competitors like Nayax remain aggressive with pricing and offer comparable solutions, adding pressure to the competitive landscape. While Cantaloupe is expected to grow subscription revenues at a ~10% clip, it does not justify the current valuation multiple. Thanks to subscriber Adi for bringing this name to our attention.

ZoomInfo (NYSE:ZI) — mrkt cap $3.4B; Price $9.98; EV/EBITDA 19

PASS. ZI is a leading provider of business contact and company information, specializing in acquiring and curating high-quality B2B data. However, ZI’s revenues have stagnated as low-cost competitors like Apollo and vertically integrated players such as HubSpot and LinkedIn continue to capture market share. Over the past year, ZI’s share price has declined by nearly 50%. For investors considering a company specializing in data, confidence in the uniqueness and durability of its data is critical—both of which remain uncertain for ZI.

LightPath (NAS:LPTH) — mrkt cap $135mm; Price $342; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. LPTH produces a specialized glass called “Black Diamond,” which is multi-spectral, allowing a broader portion of the electromagnetic spectrum to pass through compared to traditional lenses, such as those made with germanium. Traditional lenses require significantly more components to transmit wavelengths to a sensor. By enabling fewer sensors due to its superior transmission of “light,” this technology offers substantial advantages for missiles and drones in terms of cost and weight reduction. LPTH has announced a partnership with Lockheed and is competing with Raytheon for Army missile programs, with potential lifetime revenues of up to $1 billion from this contract. While the technology is proven, questions remain regarding LPTH’s ability to manufacture, assemble and deliver according to military standards. We will await further evidence of reliability before initiating a position.

Parrot (PA:PARRO) — mrkt cap 143mm; Price 4.75; EV/EBITDA NA

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. Traded on the Paris stock exchange, PARRO was one of the pioneers in introducing consumer drones and achieved significant early success. However, Chinese competitors, particularly DJI, eventually entered the market and became dominant players. As drone technology has advanced, its applications have expanded from a consumer hobby to critical tools for tactical warfare. Over the past five years, PARRO has shifted its focus to enterprise and government contracts in Europe and the USA, driven by a challenging consumer market and the appeal of larger government contracts. This pivot has positioned PARRO in a more defensible market with higher barriers to entry. We believe drones, AI, and UAVs represent a substantial growth trend, and PARRO is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. The company generates approximately $80 million in annual revenue, with a 40% yoy growth rate with about 40% of its revenue coming from the USA. It is nearing profitability after significant revenue gains and cost restructuring, and supported by a clean balance sheet, PARRO’s future looks promising.

Koppers Holdings (NYSE:KOP) — mrkt cap 622mm; Price ; EV/EBITDA 7

PASS. KOP holds a leading market share in the railroad tie, utility pole, and decking industries. Following the extensive destruction caused by the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles, we anticipate a significant increase in demand for fire-retardant materials during the rebuild phase. While Koppers emerged as a potential candidate due to its fire-retardant product line (FlamePRO), this segment represents a miniscule portion of the company’s overall business. We will continue to look for opportunities in fire prevention.

Intevac (NAS:IVAC) — mrkt cap mm; Price ; EV/EBITDA 11

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. We previously reviewed IVAC and opted to pass due to the significant risks associated with its pursuit of new business lines. Fast forward several months, and the company has divested these segments, making it a far more attractive opportunity. Intevac specializes in thin-film deposition systems and equipment for manufacturing hard disk drives. What stands out is that HDDs has historically been declining industry, and such industries often become significantly more profitable as supply consolidates and the threat of new competition diminishes. Additionally, HDDs could experience renewed growth driven by the accelerating demand for memory in data centers and new HAMR technology, positioning IVAC as a potential beneficiary. More work needs to be done to determine the growth trajectory of the HDD industry.