Stock Sonar

Finance of America (NYS:FOA) — mrkt cap $178mm; Price $18.00; P/B .57

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. The AAG acquisition in 2022 significantly boosted FOA’s retail and marketing capabilities, making it the dominant player in reverse mortgages (~37% share). The reverse mortgage industry is much better regulated today and stands to benefit from demographic tailwinds, as 10,000 baby boomers retire daily with $14T in home equity available. While the stock saw a negative AH reaction yesterday due to a slight earnings miss, the company still grew reverse mortgage originations by 19% YoY ($1.9B in 2024) despite a difficult and volatile rate environment. With falling rates expected, demand for reverse mortgages should increase. With a P/B of 0.57, FOA trades at a discount despite positive adjusted net income, cost reductions, and product innovation. Regulatory complexity keeps away smaller players and reputation risk keeps away larger players. While FOA is sensitive to higher rates and home values, we think the upside is significant and worth the risk. This was originally put on our watchlist from Twitter user @SFarringtonBKC.

Cellebrite (NAS:CLBT) — mrkt cap $3.7B; Price $17.15; EV/EBITDA 47

PASS. Cellebrite is an Israeli digital intelligence company specializing in data extraction, analysis, and forensic tools for law enforcement, intelligence agencies, and private organizations. It is best known for its Universal Forensic Extraction Device, which can unlock and retrieve data from mobile devices, playing a crucial role in criminal investigations. More importantly, Cellebrite synthesizes insights and analysis from the unstructured data it extracts. Cellebrite boasts a 120% revenue retention rate and has compounded revenue at over a 20% CAGR for the past several years. All of the top 20 police organizations in the U.S. are customers, and the company serves over 7,000 customers globally. While its industry position remains strong, the stock is currently trading at nearly 10x revenue—a valuation we consider too lofty. We will look to initiate a position on a pullback.

Lectra (PA:LSS) — mrkt cap €1.03B; Price €26.5; EV/EBITDA 12

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Lectra is a French technology company specializing in software and cutting machines for the fashion, automotive, and furniture industries. It provides CAD and manufacturing systems to optimize fabric and leather cutting, helping businesses improve efficiency and reduce waste. Its machines can create dresses or cut airbags out of thousands of different fabrics. Although Lectra has leading market shares, its share prices have stalled over the last several years due to a slowdown in luxury and automotive spending. It has recently begun a more acquisitive strategy after organically growing for the last two decades. Further analysis is needed to assess the returns on these investments and the progress of their integration.

Fluence (NAS:FLNC) — mrkt cap $1.12B; Price $6.19; EV/EBITDA 61

PASS.  Fluence is a global leader in energy storage technology and services, established as a joint venture by Siemens and The AES Corporation in 2018. As an integrator, FLNC provides advanced battery-based energy storage solutions that enable reliable, cost-effective, and sustainable power systems worldwide. Since its IPO, the company’s stock has declined by nearly 85%, largely due to mounting competition from Tesla and Chinese manufacturers. Originally one of the earliest innovators in energy storage, Fluence offered bundled solutions to its customers. However, as clients have grown more sophisticated, the market has shifted toward increasingly modular offerings. FLNC now faces pressure from more vertically integrated and better-funded competitors, and while the industry as a whole continues to expand, that growth is not sufficient to offset these challenges.

Payoneer Global (NAS:PAYO) — mrkt cap $3.5B; Price $9.95; EV/EBITDA 17

PASS. PAYO is a fintech focused on cross-border payments for SMBs, helping them receive and transfer funds from global marketplaces. The company processes ~$65 billion in annual volume and offers SMBs a wallet with invoicing, bill payments, currency conversion, and a debit card. Nearly all major marketplaces, including Etsy and Upwork, use Payoneer for seamless freelancer and SMB payments, making it a well-known brand in emerging markets. However, competition has intensified, particularly from Wise, which offers many of the same services while also passing interest on float back to customers—a growing expectation among SMBs (in contrast to PAYO which retains the interest income). The market is more crowded, putting pressure on PAYO’s ability to differentiate and grow margins. While the company is trading at a reasonable valuation, we believe growth concerns limit upside and are waiting for a better entry point.

Angi Inc (NAS:ANGI) — mrkt cap $865mm; Price $1.72; EV/EBITDA 9

PASS. Angi operates as a marketplace and lead generation platform connecting homeowners with service professionals while also fulfilling some services directly. IAC will be spinning off Angi by the end of Q1. Post-spin, IAC’s CEO, Joey Levin, is transitioning to become Angi’s chairman. The core issue with Angi is its reliance on heavy advertising spend to drive home services demand, which in turn attracts service providers willing to pay for leads. Home services remain inherently fragmented and difficult to standardize, making fixed pricing and seamless bookings a challenge. The company’s top-line revenue has been shrinking, with management claiming to have cut unprofitable traffic and pivoted to a consumer choice model. While this shift improves customer experience, it also means less control over matching (and gross margin). Ultimately, we lack confidence in Angi’s top line health to make an investment despite its optically low valuation.

Celsius (NAS:CELH) — mrkt cap $5.6B; Price $23.74; EV/EBITDA 22

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. Celsius is a functional energy drink brand positioned as a healthier alternative to Monster and Red Bull. Celsius continues to gain share in an energy drink category that remains flat, increasing its share to 12% from 11%. Despite short-term revenue volatility due to Pepsi’s initial overstocking and subsequent destocking (~$120M inventory reduction in early 2024), retail sell-through remains strong. This headwind should wash out in Q1 2025, with growth resuming. Amazon sales remain robust, and international expansion presents a large opportunity. Celsius operates with no debt, ~$900mm of cash and a disciplined management team. The recent $75mm copacking facility acquisition will allow for greater control over production, margin expansion, and flexibility for innovation. In sum, Celsius is a share gainer experiencing temporary logistical disruptions. The company has been on our watchlist a while and is just now cheap enough. Volatility is expected, and we will likely add opportunistically.

Bloom Energy (NYSE:BE) — mrkt cap $5.95B; Price $26.02; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Bloom Energy is a leader in solid oxide fuel cells, which provide on-site, low-carbon electricity for businesses and utilities. These fuel cells convert natural gas or hydrogen into electricity with higher efficiency and lower emissions than traditional power sources. Demand for Bloom Energy’s technology is rising, particularly among data centers, which are relying more on on-site generation to supplement with the electric grid due to increasing power generation constraints. Fuel cells occupy a middle ground between power plants and renewables. While there are short term needs, future demand for fuel cells is more uncertain. Battery technology is advancing more rapidly, with many data centers also adopting solar and battery storage. Without significant cost reductions and improved durability, fuel cells will likely be outpaced by cheaper, more scalable alternatives.

Cardlytics (NAS:CDLX) — mrkt cap $171mm; Price $3.37; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Cardlytics is an ad-tech platform that connects advertisers to banks, powering card-linked offers for ~166M banking users, including at JPM, BofA, and Wells Fargo. Cardlytics is the only company that has access to this data but despite the appeal of its business model, it has been plagued by execution issues. The company stock is down 98% from highs given a series of overpriced acquisitions during the pandemic, a slowdown in ad spend, and general business underperformance. CDLX has primarily struggled with ad delivery, with advertisers frustrated by a lack of transparency and inconsistent ad performance. CDLX blames banking infrastructure and approval bottlenecks for its inability to significantly improve its platform. The company posted Q3 2024 revenue of $67.1 million, down 13% yoy, and we estimate that they are burning close to ~5mm cash a quarter, which given their  ~$120million liquidity position gives them decent runway to turn things around. Under new CEO Amit Gupta, the company is transitioning to pricing models that advertisers will find more convenient. The core idea—monetizing bank transaction data through card offers—remains interesting, but execution remains subpar. We’re passing for now.

Bill Holdings (NYS:BILL) — mrkt cap $6.2B; Price $61.49; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. BILL built a strong business automating accounts payable and accounts receivable for small businesses, with integrations into QuickBooks and a solid reputation in the accounting channel. However, competition has intensified and switching costs are low. The company has tried moving upmarket into mid-sized businesses, particularly after acquiring Divvy for spend management, but execution has been inconsistent. Despite a sharp 35% drop after an earnings miss, the stock still isn’t cheap. Slowing growth and rising competition suggest BILL may struggle to justify its valuation unless it can differentiate from competitors and drive sustainable mid-market adoption.

Hydreight Tech (OTCQB:HYDTF) — mrkt cap $24mm; Price $1.04; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Hydreight started as a niche platform touted as the “uber for nurses” enabling entrepreneurial nurses to monetize their licenses independently rather than working in traditional hospital settings. By building an extensive compliance, physician, and pharmacy network, the company provided a turnkey solution that allowed nurses to offer IV therapy and wellness services without regulatory headaches. The company has since offered white-label solutions for medspas and clinics, allowing them to add mobile services under their brand. More recently, the company has entered a new high-growth vertical—facilitating B2C telehealth brands by providing the infrastructure needed to sell prescription-based treatments (GLP-1s, peptides, TRT, etc.) across all 50 states. This essentially lets any emerging Hims or Roman competitor to bypass regulatory barriers and launch nationwide almost instantly. After a strong stock run-up, shares have retraced 50% from their highs following a capital raise. While we like the core business and the optionality from new verticals, nurse adoption on the platform appears to have stalled (following considerable growth). This could be worth revisiting once we see signs of traction in newer verticals or increased nurse engagement.

Identiv (NAS:INVE) — mrkt cap $85mm; Price $3.58; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Identiv specializes in IoT, focusing on RFID and BLE technology (low-energy devices). The company recently divested its physical security division for $145 million in cash and currently trades at approximately 60% of that value. The remaining business consists of a subscale RFID segment, generating around $20 million in annual revenue with a cost base of $20 million. With gross margins of 25%, Identiv is expected to incur annual losses of approximately $15–20 million. The new CEO plans to drive growth both organically and inorganically, allocating about 60% of the company’s cash balance toward these initiatives. While promising, we will wait to see further crystallization of both the strategy and decision making of management.

Mammoth Energy (NAS:TUSK) — mrkt cap $146mm; Price $3.03; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. Mammoth Energy Services provides infrastructure solutions, including electric utility construction and oilfield services, supporting energy production and transmission. The company recently received a $160 million litigation payment from Puerto Rico, making it a net-net. At the same time, leadership has shifted, with the CEO resigning and the VP of Corporate Development stepping in. The setup looks promising—industry tailwinds and a stock trading below cash create a compelling opportunity. However, TUSK has lost money for the past five years, and its cash could be squandered through poor acquisitions or ongoing losses. We’ll be analyzing the new CEO’s strategy and planned changes.

Netlist (NAS:NLST) — mrkt cap $194mm; Price $.71; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Netlist provides high-performance semiconductor solutions for memory and storage. The company is embroiled in multiple patent lawsuits against Samsung and Micron over alleged infringements of its memory IP. Recently, it secured a $300 million damages award against Samsung, about 1.5x NLST’s current market cap. However, the market is heavily discounting this outcome, expecting appeals to either overturn or remand the case. Our initial interest stemmed from Netlist’s IP in high-bandwidth memory (HBM), a sector gaining attention due to AI-driven demand, but its actual exposure to HBM is limited. We initially thought a settlement was more likely, but given the unpredictable nature of litigation and the significant discretion judges have—often leading to widely varying rulings—we are passing on the name.

Matrix Services (NAS:MTRX) — mrkt cap $385mm; Price $13.99; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. Matrix Service Company provides engineering, construction, and maintenance services for energy and industrial applications, with a strong focus on the LNG industry, including cryogenic terminals and peak shaving LNG facilities. Its backlog recently hit $1.4 billion, growing ~40% YoY—despite operating under a prior administration that was less favorable to natural gas. With the Trump administration, LNG infrastructure is likely to expand to support a growing export market. However, profitability remains a concern. Even in its best year, MTRX generated just $30 million in net income on $1.4 billion in revenue—a 2% net margin. This isn’t a commoditized industry, suggesting MTRX may have an inflated cost structure. Employee reviews indicate a top-heavy organization, with layers of middle management while field employees make up a smaller fraction. Shareholders appear to be last in line for returns..

Cantaloupe (NAS:CTLP) — mrkt cap $605mm; Price $8.29; EV/EBITDA 22

PASS. Cantaloupe is the leader in U.S.-based vending machine payment processing, commanding approximately 70% market share. As a first mover in integrating credit card processors into vending machines, it established strong relationships with major operators like Canteen and Sodexo, the largest providers of snack and beverage vending machines in the U.S. Over time, Cantaloupe has expanded its offerings, evolving from a payment processor to a vending management software provider. Cantaloupe is heavily tied to the vending machine and micro-store industries, both of which are relatively mature. Its growth will largely depend on either increased purchasing activity or capturing additional market share. However, competitors like Nayax remain aggressive with pricing and offer comparable solutions, adding pressure to the competitive landscape. While Cantaloupe is expected to grow subscription revenues at a ~10% clip, it does not justify the current valuation multiple. Thanks to subscriber Adi for bringing this name to our attention.

ZoomInfo (NYSE:ZI) — mrkt cap $3.4B; Price $9.98; EV/EBITDA 19

PASS. ZI is a leading provider of business contact and company information, specializing in acquiring and curating high-quality B2B data. However, ZI’s revenues have stagnated as low-cost competitors like Apollo and vertically integrated players such as HubSpot and LinkedIn continue to capture market share. Over the past year, ZI’s share price has declined by nearly 50%. For investors considering a company specializing in data, confidence in the uniqueness and durability of its data is critical—both of which remain uncertain for ZI.

LightPath (NAS:LPTH) — mrkt cap $135mm; Price $342; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. LPTH produces a specialized glass called “Black Diamond,” which is multi-spectral, allowing a broader portion of the electromagnetic spectrum to pass through compared to traditional lenses, such as those made with germanium. Traditional lenses require significantly more components to transmit wavelengths to a sensor. By enabling fewer sensors due to its superior transmission of “light,” this technology offers substantial advantages for missiles and drones in terms of cost and weight reduction. LPTH has announced a partnership with Lockheed and is competing with Raytheon for Army missile programs, with potential lifetime revenues of up to $1 billion from this contract. While the technology is proven, questions remain regarding LPTH’s ability to manufacture, assemble and deliver according to military standards. We will await further evidence of reliability before initiating a position.

Parrot (PA:PARRO) — mrkt cap 143mm; Price 4.75; EV/EBITDA NA

STARTER POSITION INITIATED. Traded on the Paris stock exchange, PARRO was one of the pioneers in introducing consumer drones and achieved significant early success. However, Chinese competitors, particularly DJI, eventually entered the market and became dominant players. As drone technology has advanced, its applications have expanded from a consumer hobby to critical tools for tactical warfare. Over the past five years, PARRO has shifted its focus to enterprise and government contracts in Europe and the USA, driven by a challenging consumer market and the appeal of larger government contracts. This pivot has positioned PARRO in a more defensible market with higher barriers to entry. We believe drones, AI, and UAVs represent a substantial growth trend, and PARRO is well-positioned to capitalize on this opportunity. The company generates approximately $80 million in annual revenue, with a 40% yoy growth rate with about 40% of its revenue coming from the USA. It is nearing profitability after significant revenue gains and cost restructuring, and supported by a clean balance sheet, PARRO’s future looks promising.

Koppers Holdings (NYSE:KOP) — mrkt cap 622mm; Price ; EV/EBITDA 7

PASS. KOP holds a leading market share in the railroad tie, utility pole, and decking industries. Following the extensive destruction caused by the Palisades Fire in Los Angeles, we anticipate a significant increase in demand for fire-retardant materials during the rebuild phase. While Koppers emerged as a potential candidate due to its fire-retardant product line (FlamePRO), this segment represents a miniscule portion of the company’s overall business. We will continue to look for opportunities in fire prevention.

Intevac (NAS:IVAC) — mrkt cap mm; Price ; EV/EBITDA 11

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. We previously reviewed IVAC and opted to pass due to the significant risks associated with its pursuit of new business lines. Fast forward several months, and the company has divested these segments, making it a far more attractive opportunity. Intevac specializes in thin-film deposition systems and equipment for manufacturing hard disk drives. What stands out is that HDDs has historically been declining industry, and such industries often become significantly more profitable as supply consolidates and the threat of new competition diminishes. Additionally, HDDs could experience renewed growth driven by the accelerating demand for memory in data centers and new HAMR technology, positioning IVAC as a potential beneficiary. More work needs to be done to determine the growth trajectory of the HDD industry.

Haivision (TSE:HAI) — mrkt cap $150mm; Price $5.26; EV/EBITDA 11

SPECULATIVE POSITION INITIATED. Haivision provides essential hardware and software solutions for live monitoring and broadcasting. The company is renowned for its intuitive video management software, which integrates advanced analytics and remote access capabilities. Its solutions are optimized for low-latency, high-bandwidth environments. While historically recognized for commercial contracts, such as those with the NFL, Haivision is increasingly shifting its focus toward defense applications. The ability to ingest video and sensor data, process it for downstream applications, and rapidly share it with AI systems is in growing demand. Recently, Haivision secured a $60 million contract with the U.S. Navy and announced a strategic partnership with Shield AI. The capability to deliver real-time processed video feeds to AI models is critical for enabling object detection and autonomous operations, positioning Haivision to benefit from substantial growth in defense sector demand.

CAE Inc (NYSE:CAE) — mrkt cap $7.6B; Price $23.72; EV/EBITDA 18

PASS. CAE is a global leader in training and simulation solutions across the aerospace, defense, and healthcare sectors. The company is undergoing a leadership transition, with both the CEO and CFO positions changing, following a period of underwhelming performance and stagnant share prices over the past five years. Leadership transitions carry inherent risks, as aligning the new leadership’s expertise with the company’s strategic direction is critical. With the increasing adoption of UAVs replacing human operators, the future operating environment presents challenges that will require much more adaptation than the past.

SmartRent Inc (NYSE:SMRT) — mrkt cap $335mm; Price $1.7; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. SmartRent is a leader in “proptech” — aiming to revolutionize the rental housing market with smart technology like smart locks, thermostats, sensors, and integrated solutions. While SaaS revenue is up 23% yoy, hardware revenue, which still makes up over 60% of the business, has declined sharply as landlord customers delay spending. The stock price has plummeted ~90% from its peak, and the company is searching for a new CEO to address execution challenges in a tough macro environment. Despite burning cash, (EBITDA loss of 3.8mm in Q3), they’ve repurchased $17 mm worth of shares this year, with an additional $20 mm authorized—arguably the height of corporate stupidity (we discuss this more generally here). If they can overcome their execution and operational challenges, there is significant market opportunity given their tech leadership. The valuation is low enough where the risk reward skew is starting to look favorable but more work needs to be done to understand the state of operations. 

1800Flowers (NAS:FLWS) — mrkt cap $478mm; Price $7.49; EV/EBITDA 11

PASS. FLWS owns over 100 retail florist locations and operates an affiliate network ensuring national coverage. However, with most revenue coming from e-commerce, FLWS functions as an e-commerce rollup, integrating acquisitions like PersonalizationMall, Harry & David, and Fannie May into its platform. Margins have stabilized post-pandemic, and the balance sheet shows meaningful deleveraging. Revenue surged during the COVID boom but has since declined (latest earnings show a 10% YoY drop). Their highly touted Passport program seeks to improve cross-selling, but success here is still uncertain. Their reliance on acquisitions makes evaluation difficult without brand-specific transparency. Given these risks and difficulties, we are passing on FLWS despite its reasonable valuation.

TalkSpace (NAS:TALK) — mrkt cap $545mm; Price $3.23; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. TALK is the largest mental health platform in the United States, connecting therapists, patients, and insurance companies. The company holds over $100 million in cash and is currently trading at approximately a 2x revenue multiple, with projections to achieve profitability by 2025. Over the past five years, TALK has had a 35% revenue CAGR. The platform boasts an extensive data repository, including over 4 billion words, 26 million audio messages, and more than 400,000 video messages. This comprehensive data set will be utilized for AI across the platform, enhancing the matching process between therapists and patients and enabling improved support services. We will be speaking with IR later next week to better assess the supply and demand side platform dynamics.

Regis Corp (NAS:RGS) — mrkt cap $53mm; Price $23.00; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. RGS is a hair salon franchisor, owning multiple brands such as SuperCuts and CostCutters. RGS was nearing bankruptcy after COVID but secured a new lease on life earlier this year when it completed a hail-mary refinancing, reducing its debt load by over $80mm. RGS is now in the later innings of rationalizing their 4k franchisee network (pruning the bottom performers) and is focusing on customer satisfaction and building loyalty programs. Although this turnaround seems straightforward, more work needs to be done to assess the competitive landscape and the execution of management.

BGSF Inc (NYSE:BGSF) — mrkt cap $60mm; Price $5.48; EV/EBITDA 9

SPECULATIVE POSITION INITIATED. The staffing industry is painfully experiencing a labor market environment described as “The Great Stay,” with quit rates at their lowest since 2015. BGSF derives revenue from Property Management staffing (42%) and Professional Services (58%), including Finance, IT, and Accounting. Their recent acquisition of Momentum Solutionz expands their offerings into IT consulting and project management for SMBs. The company’s stock is currently trading below COVID lows (less than ~5x normalized FCF), is well-managed by insiders who have been buying stock, and has seen sequential qoq improvements in verticals. Post-Trump business confidence has also increased significantly, which could set the stage for increased business activity. Although recession risks prevent us from sizing up, we think the risk-reward skew is highly favorable with 100%+ potential upside.

Montrose Environmental (NYSE:MEG)  — mrkt cap $590mm; Price $16.47; EV/EBITDA NA

MORE RESEARCH NEEDED. MEG is an environmental services company that has pursued a rollup strategy over the past several years. The company is focused on emissions and lab testing — industries that are recession-resistant and politically agnostic. However, their acquisition strategy has lacked coherence, and the company is currently unprofitable with approximately $350 million in debt and preferred equity. Management is now shifting its strategy to halt acquisitions, focus on integration, and reduce debt. Further analysis is needed to evaluate their capital allocation capabilities, the company’s true organic growth, and potential synergies, such as cross-selling opportunities across their portfolio.

MP Materials (NYSE:MP)  — mrkt cap $3.2B; Price $19.54; EV/EBITDA NA

PASS. MP owns and operates the only rare earth mine and processing facility in the United States. Currently, China dominates the global rare earths industry, producing over 60% of these elements. Rare earth minerals are primarily used in EVs, drones, and wind turbines. With rising geopolitical tensions and increasing export restrictions, such as China’s recent bans on gallium, germanium, and antimony exports to the U.S., further restrictions are likely. MP is positioned to benefit from having a secure U.S.-based supply. However, the company remains unprofitable and trades at over 10x revenue, reflecting lofty expectations that we cannot underwrite. We will wait for a pullback before considering a position.