Stock Sonar #54 - 4/24/2024

Card Factory (LON:CARD)  — mrkt cap £341mm; Price £0.99; EV/EBITDA 3.6

CORE POSITION INITIATED. CARD is now our second largest position. We initially reviewed the company in our 3/13/24 Stock Sonar. CARD is a UK vertically integrated specialist retailer of greeting cards, gifts, and celebration essentials. We normally wait until after we publish our monthly initiation (which is right about the time we finish building our position) to reveal our new Core Position, but Card Factory reports earnings on April 30th and, although market reactions to earnings are impossible to predict, we believe earnings momentum is in CARD’s favor. In our Initiation Report that will be released on 5/1, we discuss why this opportunity exists, CARD’s competitive advantages, and why we expect significant price appreciation in the near term.

Intevac (NAS:IVAC) — mrkt cap $97mm; Price $3.65; EV/EBITDA 5

PASS. Intevac is a producer of thin film deposition systems and equipment for making hard disk drives. What caught our eye is that Hard Disk Drives is a declining industry and typically participants in these industries see significant profitability once supply consolidates (as the threat of new competition is inhibited). Intevac has just underwent a large cost cutting reducing headcount by 25% which is a step in the right direction, however, management is now pursuing growth via a new business segment which adds a significant degree of risk. On top of this Seagate makes up 92% of revenues which adds another degree of fragility.

Lovesac (NAS:LOVE) — mrkt cap $341mm; Price $22.24; EV/EBITDA 12

PASS. LOVE is an American furniture retailer, specializing in a patented modular furniture system called Sactionals. These are modular sofas that are made up of three types of pieces: seats, sides, and backs. The appeal is that they can be rearranged in any configuration and are easy to ship and assemble. Although LOVE has carved out a niche in the furniture industry, its high price point (a full sized sofa can cost up to $10k) is at odds with its minimalist design. Growth will likely falter unless it can position itself as more of a luxury brand. There have also been a large amount of bad reviews as quality has deteriorated, likely due to the large demand swings from COVID.

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