Zumiez is a lifestyle retailer that has sold off 70% from 2021 highs due to recessionary fears surrounding discretionary companies and small caps. Despite facing several short-term macro and micro challenges, such as recessionary pressures and competition aggressively discounting bloated inventories, Zumiez has a proven track record of surviving and thriving through business cycles. They achieve this by selling exclusive apparel that customers want, managing inventory effectively, employing minimal to no leverage, and negotiating intelligent leases. The company has successfully executed these strategies for over 40...
Capri Holdings is a fashion company that owns brands Michael Kors, Versace, and Jimmy Choo. Capri Holdings began as Michael Kors which exploded onto the accessible luxury scene in the early 2000s, rapidly taking share from incumbents such as Coach. However, Michael Kors expanded into retail and wholesale channels too rapidly resulting in brand dilution. Long-time CEO John Idol is committed to restoring Michael Kors to a more premium brand by using a similar playbook executed by peer fashion brand Coach: increasing quality and marketing spend, reducing store footprints, and subsequently...
Gildan is the largest manufacturer of low-cost basic apparel for the Printwear industry (see appendix below for industry primer), producing roughly 1.2 billion shirts per year. This is a company with a durable manufacturing advantage that we will own if the opportunity presents itself, but we are holding off for now and assigning Gildan a neutral rating. We believe their Printwear segment is vulnerable to a slowdown in unit sales within the next 12-24 months and their Branded Products segment, sold through brick-and-mortar retailers, is in a secular downtrend. Gildan’s culture is optimized for manufacturing...
Natural Resource Partners is an MLP that owns the mineral rights to roughly 13mm acres in the Appalachia Basin and Wyoming. Currently, their primary natural resources are thermal and metallurgical coal. Given the low-cost business of collecting royalties with a protected downside, an ownership stake in a low-cost producer of soda ash, and potential upside in carbon capture, we believe NRP is undervalued by at least 30%. Although coal is a dying industry, there are pockets of resilience that should prove durable for the near term, namely metallurgical coal production...
We have closed our PTON position, realizing a 60% gain. While the PTON brand remains strong, the momentum behind the much-needed cost-cutting measures appears to be slowing. Our original investment thesis was based on the belief that the new CEO, Barry McCarthy, would execute prudent cost discipline and right-sizing initiatives, which would enable PTON to survive and ultimately grow. This view was reinforced by several judicious divestments and headcount reductions that helped instill confidence in the financial viability of the company. Within approximately one year, the total costs declined from...
Investment thesis Endor (E2N:MU) is a premium simulation racing brand that has been growing revenues at a 30% CAGR over the last five years. As the dominant premium brand with about 40% market share, Endor stands to capitalize on the rising demand for sim racing. The industry is poised to expand as sim racing gains legitimacy with motorcar sports organizations coupled with the continued immersion of games. We believe Endor is trading at a discount to intrinsic value of at least 30%. Business Background Simulation racing (sim racing) is an…
SES Imagotag was up 62% in 2022. We have trimmed SES Imagotag as the margin of safety has decreased and the percentage it constitutes of our portfolio has reached above-healthy levels. SES saw an inflection in demand for their offerings as inflationary worries caused retailers to lean more heavily into electronic shelf labels as a means to increase productivity and profitability. To summarize some events of note in 2022: – SES is on track to have revenues of greater than €600mm in 2022-a growth rate of 45%. – SES signed…
American Outdoors was our largest detractor in 2022 being down 50% YTD. To recap some of the factors when we took a position in January 2021: Although revenues were predicted accurately coming out of COVID, operating expenses were not. AOUT has seen an uplift in expenses driven by increased freight costs, standalone expenses, and an expanded distribution footprint. This amount added up to roughly an extra $10mm/ year in costs; an estimated $25mm in earnings became $15mm. The lesson learned here is to be especially cautious about forecasting expenses on…
We added to META as a myriad of fears from regulation to TikTok to Zuckerberg having gone AWOL has reached an all-time high. Here is what the market thinks of Zuckerberg’s capital allocation (keeping in mind Zuckerberg has a phenomenal track record with monetizing the core business to purchasing Instagram and WhatsApp). The core business earns about 32B (using about 15B for maintenance capex). Between RL and growth capex, META is spending roughly 27B. Using a conservative 10x multiple on 2022 EBIT, one arrives at $320B. META currently trades at…
Core Civic (CXW) is the largest private prison company in the USA. CXW owns roughly 70k beds and primarily provides and/or manages facilities for ICE and USMS detainees, and state prisoners. This is not an article on the ethical merits of private prisons, but one on the fundamentals of the private prison business. Before delving into Core Civic, a primer on the USA jail system is helpful. There are three types of correction or incarceration facilities: federal, state, and local jails. Correctional facilities are concrete and steel structures that typically…
