Research Vault

  • All Initiation Reports have the price at initiation and upside potential listed
  • Bias towards small and mid capitalizations; sector agnostic; about 90% U.S. & 10% Foreign names
  • Each "Open" position will be sized between 5%-15% in the Pernas Portfolio
  • All closed positions will have the performance result listed
  • About 40% of Pernas Research's Initiation Reports receive a "neutral" rating. Read about why we publish neutrals here

Peloton ::UPDATE:: CLOSED

We have closed our PTON position, realizing a 60% gain. While the PTON brand remains strong, the momentum behind the much-needed cost-cutting measures appears to be slowing. Our original investment thesis was based on the belief that the new CEO, Barry McCarthy, would execute prudent cost discipline and right-sizing initiatives, which would enable PTON to survive and ultimately grow. This view was reinforced by several judicious divestments and headcount reductions that helped instill confidence in the financial viability of the company. Within approximately one year, the total costs declined from...

    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: +60%

(MU:E2N) Endor: A Dominant Brand In The Sim Racing Space

Investment thesis Endor (E2N:MU) is a premium simulation racing brand that has been growing revenues at a 30% CAGR over the last five years. As the dominant premium brand with about 40% market share, Endor stands to capitalize on the rising demand for sim racing. The industry is poised to expand as sim racing gains legitimacy with motorcar sports organizations coupled with the continued immersion of games. We believe Endor is trading at a discount to intrinsic value of at least 30%. Business Background Simulation racing (sim racing) is an…

    • Initiation Price: €13.00
    • Upside: 30%
    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: -60%

SES Imagotag ::UPDATE:: TRIM

SES Imagotag was up 62% in 2022. We have trimmed SES Imagotag as the margin of safety has decreased and the percentage it constitutes of our portfolio has reached above-healthy levels. SES saw an inflection in demand for their offerings as inflationary worries caused retailers to lean more heavily into electronic shelf labels as a means to increase productivity and profitability. To summarize some events of note in 2022:    – SES is on track to have revenues of greater than €600mm in 2022-a growth rate of 45%.    – SES signed…

    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: +185%

American Outdoor ::UPDATE:: CLOSED

American Outdoors was our largest detractor in 2022 being down 50% YTD. To recap some of the factors when we took a position in January 2021: Although revenues were predicted accurately coming out of COVID, operating expenses were not. AOUT has seen an uplift in expenses driven by increased freight costs, standalone expenses, and an expanded distribution footprint. This amount added up to roughly an extra $10mm/ year in costs; an estimated $25mm in earnings became $15mm. The lesson learned here is to be especially cautious about forecasting expenses on…

    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: -50%

META ::UPDATE:: ADD

We added to META as a myriad of fears from regulation to TikTok to Zuckerberg having gone AWOL has reached an all-time high. Here is what the market thinks of Zuckerberg’s capital allocation (keeping in mind Zuckerberg has a phenomenal track record with monetizing the core business to purchasing Instagram and WhatsApp). The core business earns about 32B (using about 15B for maintenance capex). Between RL and growth capex, META is spending roughly 27B.  Using a conservative 10x multiple on 2022 EBIT, one arrives at $320B. META currently trades at…

(NYSE:CXW) CoreCivic: A Deep Dive into the Private Prison Business

Core Civic (CXW) is the largest private prison company in the USA. CXW owns roughly 70k beds and primarily provides and/or manages facilities for ICE and USMS detainees, and state prisoners. This is not an article on the ethical merits of private prisons, but one on the fundamentals of the private prison business. Before delving into Core Civic, a primer on the USA jail system is helpful. There are three types of correction or incarceration facilities: federal, state, and local jails. Correctional facilities are concrete and steel structures that typically…

    • Initiation Price: $8.94
    • Upside: Neutral
    • Current Status: No Position

(NAS:PTON) Peloton: The Fitness Appliance

Peloton is one of the more polarizing companies we have come across. The two investing camps are of the opinion that PTON is either: a) a $2k coat rack or b) the best thing since sliced bread and will make all gyms obsolete. We find polarization to be a signal into the potential strength of a brand, it is not hate//love but indifference that kills a brand. Other polarizing brands are Tesla, Apple, etc. If nothing else it contributes to share of mind. The fitness industry has seen a myriad…

    • Initiation Price: $9.58
    • Upside: 130%
    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: +60%

(NAS:META) Facebook: The Next Verse

FB has almost half the planet in aggregate on its platforms (Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp). Although FB has compounded negative goodwill with endless scandals relating to privacy and manipulation of elections, and Zuckerberg is probably one of the more disliked people on the planet, we think FB is trading at bargain levels given the quality of the business. Q1 2022 earnings has shaken investors’ confidence due to low growth, and fear over ATT and TikTok. Can FB overcome short-term problems and continue to leverage its platform? There are primarily three factors to address with FB...

    • Initiation Price: $190.29
    • Upside: 50%
    • Current Status: Open

Centrus Energy ::UPDATE:: CLOSED

We exited LEU for a gain of 350%. Given the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions, there is a risk LEU is restricted from obtaining separative work units (SWUs ) from Russia. This would effectively demolish its business. Given this uncertainty, we have exited the position. INVESTMENT DISCLAIMERS & INVESTMENT RISKSPast performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. All investments carry significant risk, and it’s important to note that we are not in the business of providing investment advice. All investment decisions of an individual remain the specific responsibility…

    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: +350%

Delta Apparel ::UPDATE:: CLOSED

We closed DLA for a gain of 5%. Relative to other positions, DLA is more illiquid and not as well positioned in an inflationary environment. DLA sells a commodity and with its heavy manufacturing footprint in a sustained inflationary environment, its margins would deteriorate significantly. Even if it can pass increased operating expenses onto the customer, its maintenance capital expenditures would go up considerably. Coupled with management’s recent caginess about its Direct to Garment (DTG) segment – which we believed was the primary value driver in DLA – and reluctance…

    • Current Status: Closed
    • Result: +5%